From the Desk of AgFi’s Business Strategist
Published 4/29/25 – Yesterday, the 10-year Treasury rate fell sharply, taking it once again into the area of long-standing support (see the chart below). There has been little fanfare about the move in rates indicating that big bond traders may know something that is not being published. In any event, the 10-year Treasury rate has fallen from the April 11 closing high of 4.49% to the close yesterday at 4.22%, nearly a drop of 30 basis points (.3%).
The fact that there is little news about the rate drop probably indicates that there may be pending news about trade. If that is true, and if the deals are expected to improve the US trade position, then it is likely that rates could fall further. That is primarily because it would eliminate uncertainty, may lead to more balanced economic growth, and may reduce government borrowing. On the other hand, if it does not happen then rates may drift higher.
We will continue monitoring the market. Should the 10-year Treasury rate drop below 4.10%, and especially should it fall below 3.89% (the recent low) borrowers may have interest in conversion opportunities before rate resets or maturities.